Edgar McGregor

Winter 2026 was one of the most highly anticipated winters in decades at Eaton Canyon. As the first full water year following a major wildfire, what occurs during this particular season will have a profound impact on the trajectory of Eaton Canyon’s recovery. 

Through observation, biologists and ecologists have noted discrepancies in how Southern California ecosystems respond to wildfires that occur during different stages of inter-decadal drought and flooding. If the first water year following a wildfire is hot and dry, native shrubs can fail to regenerate, creating openings quickly exploited by invasive annual grasses. This “type conversion” locks the area into a grass-dominated state that burns more frequently and with greater continuity, increasing future fire risk. Alternatively, if the first water year is cool and moist, native vegetation can re-establish before invasive species gain a foothold. Deep-rooted shrubs and resprouting chaparral species rely on early moisture to rebuild carbohydrate reserves and anchor soils. Moderate storm intensity promotes infiltration rather than runoff, reducing erosion. When temperatures remain seasonable, evapotranspiration stays manageable, allowing seedlings to survive long enough to develop root systems.

However, the 2026 winter was neither of these scenarios. Instead, it was a record-hot year with well-above-average precipitation. When comparing winter temperatures with water-year-to-date rainfall, 2026 stands in a league of its own for heat and precipitation. Its closest contender, 1980, was three degrees cooler and 10 inches wetter. Another year, 2015, saw similar temperatures but just half the observed precipitation. 

One of the most significant issues has been the frequency of 80°F+ afternoons during the season. The 2026 winter witnessed a record-breaking 28 afternoons above that threshold, beating the previous record of 25 such afternoons set in 2018. Even worse, these warm days have been evenly spread throughout the entire season, preventing any prolonged cool, wet period. Of the four storm series that impacted the park during the winter, none of them lasted more than 2 weeks before hot, dry weather returned.

The season ended with a bang, with the first-ever extreme heat day during the winter season on February 27, 2026 when high temperatures reached 95°F.

Now, a major heatwave is bearing down on the canyon in what is likely to be the hottest March on record in the area. 

Nearly a year after the Eaton Fire swept through the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains, the time has come to ask the question: Why is Eaton Canyon still closed? The answer is combination of safety, environmental, and operational challenges that must be addressed before the canyon can reopen safely to the public.

The most urgent and non-negotiable reason for the continued closure is the destruction of critical infrastructure, specifically the wooden railings on the Chuck Ballard Memorial Bridge. These railings were burned during the fire and are required for public safety. Without them, hikers and dogs could easily fall to their deaths. These railings were already weakened before the fire and were unsafe, but now they just don’t exist. Replacement of these railings is a major construction project that must be properly designed, permitted, and funded before any reopening can occur. Until that work is completed, reopening the trail would pose an unacceptable risk to visitors.

 

Closely behind infrastructure concerns is the protection of Eaton Canyon’s riparian ecosystem, particularly along the trail leading to the waterfall. This narrow corridor supports sensitive plant and wildlife species and was heavily stressed by fire, erosion, and post-fire runoff. The regrowth now underway is fragile. Heavy foot traffic at this stage could permanently damage the habitat that is already considered critically vulnerable. Allowing thousands of hikers to pass through before the ecosystem stabilizes would risk losing it altogether.

 

Another major obstacle is the absence of basic park operations. Eaton Canyon currently has no nature center, limited equipment, and insufficient vehicles to support day-to-day management. Staffing, emergency response capability, and routine maintenance all depend on these resources. With the County still recovering financially and operationally from widespread disaster impacts, it is simply in no position to safely operate a high-use park at this time.

 

Public health and safety concerns also persist along the main trail due to the rapid spread of the native poodle-dog bush, a plant known to cause severe skin irritation in humans and animals. In several areas, it is growing directly alongside the main Eaton Canyon trail. Accidental contact, especially involving children or dogs, is highly likely if the canyon were reopened prematurely. Managing this natural hazard requires long-term monitoring and education. 

 

Finally, while conditions have improved since the immediate aftermath of the fire, the canyon still contains unstable boulders and weakened trees. These hazards are far less severe than they were a year ago, but they have not been entirely eliminated and remain a background risk.

 

For now, reopening Eaton Canyon would create more problems than it would solve. Nearby neighborhoods are still recovering, and an early reopening would bring unwanted traffic and roadside parking in disaster zones.

The canyon will reopen once critical repairs are completed, sensitive habitat has stabilized, and basic park operations can resume. Until then, the closure remains in place to protect public safety, the environment, and the surrounding community.

Over the last several weeks, the County of Los Angeles Department of Public Works has been dealing with an outbreak of bark beetle in a stand of Coulter Pines at roughly one dozen private residences near the Pinecrest Gate. These pests, which invade trees by flying from trunk to trunk, have been killing this stand of Coulter Pines that have been growing for roughly 90 years in the area. Once the beetle bores a hole in the tree’s trunk, it begins eating the cambium layer, the tree’s living tissue. This stops the tree from being able to get water and nutrients to its leaves, and carbohydrates back down to its roots. These beetles can kill the tree in a matter of weeks. While healthy trees may be able to push the beetles out with sap, trees stressed by drought and/or fire such as these are less capable. 

This loss comes at a time when Altadena has already been dealing with the significant loss of its urban forest due to the Eaton Fire and questionable business practices from tree-trimming companies that followed. It is unclear how many total trees could be lost in this outbreak, but the number already stands at 11. Coulter pines are native to California but are not historically found at Eaton Canyon, especially in lower elevations.