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The Canyon: Robert Savino Oventile’s Remarkable Collection of Poems about Eaton Canyon

A man smiling at the camera
Robert Savino Oventile.
Editor's Note: Robert Savino Oventile's latest collection of poems, The Canyon, includes 24 works; nine of which originally appeared in MyEatonCanyon.com as Trail Magic contributions, plus six others previously published in poetry journals. The book incorporates photographs from fellow My Eaton Canyon contributors Susan Hopkins, Tom Mills and Edgar McGregor. Over lunch at Tacos Poncitlan on Allen, Oventile discussed silence, time, his appreciation of Frankenstein, the nature of nature and, of course, the art of poetry with journalist Phil Hopkins. Proceeds from sales of The Canyon will be used to fund the replacement of educational exhibits lost in the Eaton Fire at the Eaton Canyon Nature Center.

[Hopkins] This is clearly not your first book of poetry.

[Oventile] It’s my fifth book overall, my second book of poetry.

[Hopkins] Tell me the origin story of this one…why write poems about one canyon and specifically why Eaton Canyon?

[Oventile] In 2022 I was down there hiking many times a week and thought it might as well become a writing project. That’s the origin of the book, more or less, on a somewhat superficial level. A bit more deeply, some of my earliest memories are connected to the canyon.

I remember visiting the original Nature Center as a child. My parents grew up during the Depression. If something was free for a family event, something to do on a weekend, they noticed, so they took my siblings and I to Eaton Canyon often. My orientation in the world has Eaton Canyon as a factor, kind of in the middle distance.

I’ve had ecological thoughts running around my mind for quite some time. The La Brea Tar Pits were another family outing — free, right? So, early on, I must have been thinking about changes in the environment. My eight-year-old self wouldn’t have put it that way, but I was exposed to thoughts of large-scale ecological change at a young age.

In 2022, I thought I would start writing a series of poems about the canyon. Another thing that made me think I should try this was the work of the thinker who wrote the blurb for the book, Timothy Morton. Morton writes about the intersections of literature, philosophy, and ecological thinking. Reading some of Morton’s work made me realize there are ways to approach poetry with an ecological connection in a way I hadn’t encountered before and that I was interested in trying to do.

[Hopkins] Your book’s “Prelude” has echoes of an almost Buddhist-like silence. I’m wondering how you got to that point because the canyon can be quiet, but it’s not silent.

[Oventile] That’s a very thoughtful question and I appreciate you asking it. One of the book reviews that have come out so far talks about the silence of the words in this book. In a way, that might take an author aback because an author might say, “Oh dear, my words are silent. Where’s my voice in this book?” But I was glad to see that sentence in the review. It helps to listen if one is silent. Without some silence somewhere, it’s going to be difficult to hear, in this case, Eaton Canyon.

“Prelude” is about a moment I had when I was six, maybe seven. I was just old enough for my parents to feel comfortable leaving me at home by myself for a few hours. They bought a house in Arcadia in the early 1960s. That’s when some houses there had a third or a quarter acre of land behind the house. For kids that was a big space.

My parents had gone somewhere with my siblings and I thought, well, I’m probably supposed to stay in the house but I’m going to wander back there, to that field, that quarter acre of open land. I found myself, I mean this is a 63-year-old giving words to a seven-year-old, but I found myself listening to the silence, in silence.

Biographically, that experience is what this little “Prelude” is tied to. And it is indeed connected to listening in different pieces in The Canyon.

[Hopkins] So it’s more about the nature of the listener rather than silence in the environment?

[Oventile] There’s a lot going on in the canyon environment to be heard. Sometimes quite a lot. The canyon has a quite various soundscape. The listener needs to allow for silence to welcome that soundscape.

[Hopkins] I had a couple of questions about thematic elements in the book. One of the things that you use quite a bit in your poetry is the manipulation of time. Not from a standpoint of changing events, but just manipulating them back and forth. And I’m curious about how you see time. Do you see it as a stage where history performs? Do you see it as an environment? What do you see it as?

[Oventile] Of course there’s clock time, and that’s real enough. Again, I take some inspiration from Timothy Morton, who is a member of a school of philosophy called object-oriented ontology. That’s worth mentioning in relation to this time question. Graham Harman is another of these object-oriented ontologists. Harman has been arguing that time is a function of objects. Abstract space and time are useful, for example as measuring tools. But actual times and actual spaces are functions of objects.

[Hopkins] What you’re saying, if I could paraphrase, is that objects exist in time.

[Oventile] Times are actualities emergent from objects, from real, distinct, particular entities. For example, the geological epoch the Holocene. You can measure it abstractly in years, approximately 11,700. But that time period is as real as things get. The Holocene emerges from a particular configuration of the Earth system (the lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and atmosphere), for example with a particular average surface temperature. Similarly, consider a season. That’s a real time. Spring is temporal and fully real. You don’t have what we call spring on Mars because the configuration of objects on Earth that precipitate the time we call spring is not there on Mars. Roughly, those are some thoughts about time that I’m trying to work with in this book.

[Hopkins] That’s a fascinating perspective. I was thinking about time in terms of the framework for memory. And how much memory has to do with the perception of objects. Does an object exist if it’s not in your memory or if it’s not perceived?

[Oventile] The actuality of objects, their independence from our minds, is an important ecological question. One way to distinguish the mind dependent from the mind independent would be to say something entirely mind dependent would be wholly a function of a person’s will. Mind independent entities are kind of stubborn. We can try to do stuff with them, but there are limits to what we can do with them, and that’s a signal of their independence from us, of their irreducible actuality.

[Hopkins] Is there a tipping point or boundary between mind independent and mind dependent?

[Oventile] The response that comes to my mind is I don’t know, I’m not sure. In a severe blizzard, if you add or subtract one snowflake what does that do?

[Hopkins] Normally, not much. But one snowflake can be the difference between an avalanche and no avalanche.

[Oventile] That’s true. I think that’s interesting. There’s something that sets the avalanche off. It might be Victor Frankenstein yelling up to a snow-laden mountain slope at Mont Blanc. He’s trying to start an avalanche. He’s hiking out there because his experiment was disastrously successful. The creature, which he abandoned, has gone rogue. He goes up into the mountains and he basically starts yelling and the implicit point is he wants to start an avalanche that would bury him.

I guess I’m a Frankenstein fanatic.

Mary Shelley’s novel Frankenstein (published in 1818) is not just doing PR for the science of the early nineteenth century. The novel shows Mary Shelley trying to get her imagination caught up with what she knew, which included proto-Earth system science. There’s a lesson there for us. The Holocene is in the rearview mirror, yet we generally walk around as if the Holocene now exists and will continue to exist.

Mary Shelley might note that the way many of us imagine the ecological situation has not caught up with what we know about that situation. I certainly haven’t caught up to what I think I know about climate change. Imagination is, for better or worse, inescapable. I’m trying to do that…catch up a little bit.

[Hopkins] There’s an example in your poems, which is attuned to your comment about Frankenstein, where you have a little bit of body horror regarding a tarantula hawk.

[Oventile] That’s where the tarantula doesn’t know exactly what’s happening to it, other than the fact that something is.

[Hopkins] Right. And then what emerges from the spider is a new tarantula hawk. How much thought went into the construction of those concepts of symbiosis in your book?

[Oventile] Well, thank goodness for whatever tiny critters live in my gut that help keep me going. That’s symbiosis. If you have life, you have symbiosis. I’m assuming symbiosis is pervasive, that it’s symbiosis all the way down.

[Hopkins] Some of the things you write about have to do with the theme of impermanence. You have a poem about the El Dorado Inn, a steakhouse that decided to go sailing away during a flood in the canyon.

[Oventile] My father took me to Eaton Canyon to witness the 1969 flood that took out the El Dorado Inn. It turned out the canyon was just a really bad place to build a restaurant.

Fast forward to the fall of 2022. The recent origin of that poem is, I was hiking in the canyon near the reservoir and crossed the stream bed. And in the sand was a ring of bone. And I said, uh-huh, that’s interesting. Because it was clearly cut with a kitchen saw. I realized this bone was from somebody’s steak. That triggered thoughts about the restaurant and memories of seeing it flooded out.

[Hopkins] The Eaton Canyon of this book is the canyon prior to January 7th of this year. When did you begin writing The Canyon? I know you began writing the individual poems long before the Eaton Fire.

[Oventile] I wrote the first poem in October of 2022, and then the last one was from December 2024. All the poems were written before the Eaton Fire.

[Hopkins] So the poem about fire in the canyon is about the 1993 wildfire, yes?

[Oventile] Yes. I thought about that after the 2025 fire and wondered if I needed to modify the poem prior to publication. I decided against it.

[Hopkins] You also have a poem about castor bean plants, which are not native to the canyon. They’re rather invasive, so that’s why they are being removed.

[Oventile] A given species can rapidly displace another. In this case, castor bean plants displace and replace a number of other species in a way that homogenizes the Eaton Canyon ecosystem, reducing its biodiversity. Now, removing castor bean plants is an intervention by members of yet another species, Homo sapiens.

This process might lead us to question the notion of “nature” in relation to the canyon. And in one way, “nature” came to the “New World” with European colonization.

[Hopkins] When you say nature came to the Americas through European colonization, what do you mean by that?

[Oventile] “Untouched by human beings”: let’s just say that’s a go-to definition of nature. Imagine conducting a survey of shoppers on Colorado Boulevard. We ask them to define nature for us by selecting phrases to describe it. And one phrase we offer is “untouched by human beings.” I bet a lot of people would check that box.

A legal framework for colonization was to declare an area “terra nullius,” meaning “empty land” or “the land of no one.” That is, land free for the taking. And once the colonists arrived with their diseases, which decimated indigenous peoples, the land came more to resemble nature, if that meant uninhabited by people, with the notion “uninhabited” here being anthropocentric anyway. The concept of nature as we know it is answerable to that history to some degree.

I’ve mostly dropped the word nature from my vocabulary, having some awareness of the relevant history. Archeologist Paulette F.C. Steeves’s book The Indigenous Paleolithic of the Western Hemisphere is very instructive on these issues.

[Hopkins] How has your perception as a poet changed since the Eaton Fire? And since the closure in the canyon?

[Oventile] It has definitely changed. I wrote about trout in the canyon in December of 2024. I thought, well, that poem seems to work ok. But after the fire?

You know, for a while I wasn’t thinking too much about writing poetry. Because you have to let people deal with other things.


The Canyon by Robert Savino Oventile has a release date of September 9th, 2025. It is available for pre-order at Vroman’s Bookstore and other local booksellers in paperback and hardback editions. It is published by Atmosphere Press.

The Canyon: Robert Savino Oventile’s Remarkable Collection of Poems about Eaton Canyon Read More »

Angeles National Forest Abruptly Lifts 2024 Bridge Fire Closure Amid Enforcement Struggles. Is Eaton Next?

In September 2024, during yet another juggernaut Southern California heatwave, the Bridge Fire erupted along East Fork Road in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains. The blaze, one of three major wildfires burning simultaneously across Southern California, tore through 50,000 acres of chaparral in the Angeles National Forest. While no lives were lost, the fire devastated a landscape popular with recreationalists and hikers, prompting the immediate closure of the area.

In accordance with standard federal policy, post-fire closures in national forests typically remain in place for two to four years to allow ecosystems to recover and to protect public safety. The County of Los Angeles has adopted this culture with the closure of Eaton Canyon. Reopening a park too soon can hinder ecological regrowth and expose visitors to serious hazards such as rockfalls, weakened trees, and persistent ash and dust, all of which have caused fatalities at fire sites across the country.

On June 20, 2025, the Angeles National Forest released a surprise statement that took everyone, including ANF employees, completely aback; The 2024 Bridge Fire Area Closure has been terminated effective immediately.

While the official notice provided no explanation as to why the closure notice was prematurely terminated, Forest Service employees speaking on condition of anonymity stated that the National Forest simply lacked the resources to enforce the closure. “People were going in anyway,” one said. “Since we don’t have the capacity to stop them, there is no use in a closure.” As threats to cut environmental funding mount from the Trump Administration, the decision to lift the closure may have been more about surrendering to circumstance than anything else.

This begs the question of what will happen to the Eaton Fire burn area closure notice, which is set to expire on December 31, 2025, and also encloses an area extremely popular with recreationalists. If the U.S. Forest Service cannot enforce a closure notice, it runs the risk of future closure notices being ignored. In the days following the Eaton Fire, U.S. Forest Service employees stated that the closure notice would “very likely extend throughout the entirety of 2026.” In light of recent policy shifts from the federal government, however, that statement’s careful wording to leave in uncertainty may be proving prophetic. With the early termination of the Bridge Fire closure and increasing pressure on public land managers to reduce restrictions, despite safety risks and ecological consequences, it is no longer clear whether the Eaton Fire closure will be extended past the end of this year.

Angeles National Forest Abruptly Lifts 2024 Bridge Fire Closure Amid Enforcement Struggles. Is Eaton Next? Read More »

Introducing Synoptic Classifications Within Cold-Flavor Santa Ana Windstorms Using ERA5 and Local Mesonet Data


1. Introduction

Santa Ana wind events vary widely in duration and intensity, directly influencing destructive wildfire behavior across Southern California’s urban-wildland interface. This study analyzes four major cold-flavor Santa Ana events from 2020 to 2025 and proposes a synoptic classification framework to improve the prediction and public communication of windstorm duration and severity.

Using ERA5 reanalysis in conjunction with 10-minute sustained and peak gust observations from Eaton Canyon, we identify three potential synoptic variants based on 500 mb relative vorticity patterns that cause strong mountain wave windstorms in Southern California: single-trough, double-trough, and rotor-trough events. To test the hypothesis that major cold-flavor windstorms fall into one of these three categories, we retrospectively applied the framework to 50 years of historical windstorms, identifying candidates using ERA5 data. Historical windstorms were cross-verified using newspaper archives. Results indicate that 13 of the 17 flagged windstorm events between 1970 and 2019 were confirmed through media archives, with the four unverified cases all occurring prior to 1987.

Findings also reveal that double-trough events, while not always producing the highest gusts, sustain damaging winds for significantly longer durations than other variants and therefore pose the greatest risk for wildfire spread into urban areas, particularly when they occur before meaningful rainfall. In contrast, rotor-trough events are associated with the most powerful windstorms observed to date. Improved communication of the approaching synoptic variant may enhance resource allocation and preparedness among emergency personnel.


2. Methodology

We selected all four of the major Santa Ana windstorms to have struck Altadena, where the historic Eaton Fire occurred, from the past 5 years. These events occurred on:

  • February 3-4, 2020
  • January 21-22, 2022
  • March 14, 2024
  • January 7-8, 2025

Each event was identified via eyewitness recount and available weather station data at SCE Eaton Canyon (SE215) and SCE Loma Alta / McNally (SE609), both of which located in the Altadena area. These stations were selected due to their unobstructed exposure, with minimal nearby trees or structures that could otherwise affect wind speed or direction measurements. Wind events were included in this analysis only if peak gusts reached at least 50 MPH at either station. For each qualifying event, the corresponding upper-level trough was examined using ERA5 reanalysis data accessed through the PG&E 2-km WRF Model Visualization Project, maintained by the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center at San José State University. Troughs were identified and tracked using 3-hour 500 mb relative vorticity fields.

Wind speed data from mesonet sensors built and operated by Southern California Edison (SCE) at Eaton Canyon near Altadena were compiled into histograms showing the frequency distributions of 10-minute sustained wind speeds and 10-minute maximum observed gusts at 5 MPH intervals.

Each event began when either wind gusts reached 30 MPH or 10-minute sustained winds reached 15 MPH, and ended when those thresholds were no longer met for at least 12 hours. These thresholds are general considered consequential for wildfire spread according to National Weather Service Red Flag Warning criteria. These specifications allow an event separated into two halves with a lull in-between to still be considered one single windstorm. Once the histograms were created, each event was then sorted by both strength and duration.

Events were classified based on surface observations to look for a correlation. Once it was established how many variants there could be, a full investigation into 50 years of ERA5 reanalysis was conducted to determine whether past wind events between 1970 and 2019 could also be place into one of the three variants. These additional wind events, which will not be examined further due to a lack of weather station data, were then searched in media databases for possible stories published about them.

3. Observations

The February 2020 event lasted a cumulative 17.0 hours during which wind gusts exceeded 30 MPH. Despite its duration, the storm produced only 1.5 hours of damaging gusts greater than 50 MPH. Two peaks in intensity were observed: one near the onset and a more significant one at the tail end. Of the 1.5 hours of damaging winds, 1.3 hours occurred during this final surge. The event featured three notable lulls—after sunrise, shortly after solar noon, and again following sunset. Between lulls, winds were persistent, with long stretches of gusts ranging from 25 to 40 MPH.

The January 2022 event persisted for 8.5 hours—half the duration of the 2020 storm—but generated 2.7 cumulative hours of damaging wind gusts ≥50 MPH. Wind activity was concentrated into three distinct peaks: a weak pre-sunset surge, a stronger episode just before midnight, and a slightly stronger peak before sunrise. Damaging gusts were evenly distributed across the two overnight surges. The peaks were separated by a prolonged lull after sunset and a brief lull just after midnight. Wind intensity fell sharply following each peak without forming plateaus.

The March 2024 windstorm lasted 8.5 hours and produced 3.0 hours of damaging wind gusts ≥50 MPH. The event developed gradually, initiating a few hours before sunrise and intensifying steadily through mid-morning. Damaging gusts began shortly after sunrise and peaked during mid-morning hours. Wind speeds gradually declined by solar noon and diminished further in the hour following. Unlike the 2020 and 2022 events, the wind speed profile for this storm resembled a semi-circular curve—characterized by a slow rise and fall with no sharp peaks or lulls.

The January 2025 windstorm was exceptionally long and intense, lasting 23.3 hours and producing 12.2 cumulative hours of damaging wind gusts ≥50 MPH—nearly double the total of the other three events combined or 5x any other event analyzed. The event began rapidly a few hours before sunrise on January 7, with damaging gusts recorded within the first hour. A plateau in wind intensity followed, extending through the mid-morning hours, with the strongest gusts occurring near sunrise. A sharp collapse in wind speed occurred mid-morning, leading to a lull that lasted until shortly after solar noon.

A second phase began abruptly in the early afternoon, returning to damaging gusts within one hour. A new plateau in intensity then extended through midnight and into the early morning of January 8. During this period, the Eaton Canyon SCE weather station was burned over as the Eaton Fire passed through, causing a slight bump in windspeed. The maximum gust of the event occurred a few hours after burn over. A brief lull followed midnight, succeeded by the most powerful surge of the event in the pre-dawn hours. This surge was the only occurrence in the dataset of tropical-storm-force sustained wind speeds. The event weakened rapidly before sunrise, followed by a final qualifying surge mid-morning, and ended two hours before solar noon on the second day.

4. Results

Analysis of the four recent wind events alongside their synoptic environments revealed that all could be categorized into one of three distinct upper-level patterns: single-trough, double-trough, or rotor-trough events. Each variant exhibited consistent characteristics in terms of vorticity structure, jet placement, windstorm duration, and intensity profile. A subsequent scan of ERA5 data from 1970 to 2019 identified 17 additional historical periods with similar synoptic setups. While surface wind observations were not available for these older events, their upper-level characteristics suggest they are strong candidates for past major cold-flavor Santa Ana windstorms. Of these 17 cases, 13 events produced articles in local media outlets. The four that did not all occurred before 1987.

Rotor Events: Rotor-trough events are characterized by large, cold-core upper-level troughs drifting south-southwest from the Great Basin. As these troughs intensify over the Mojave Desert, they often generate shortwave ejections to their south and west. These ejections result in pulses of cyclonic relative vorticity ranging from 25 × 10⁻⁵ s⁻¹ to 60 × 10⁻⁵ s⁻¹ crossing the Transverse Ranges. This dynamic interaction produces brief but exceptionally intense mountain wave windstorms. Wind speed profiles during these events are typically arc-shaped, lacking sharp peaks or distinct lulls, and often last fewer than 12 hours, with peak gusts ≥50 MPH occurring for under 6 hours.

Examples likely include events on January 20, 1980; January 27, 1987; November 30, 1991; November 14, 1993; October 27, 1996; December 1, 2011; February 17, 2012; and March 14, 2024. The March 2024 event, for which observational data are available, showed a clear arc-like wind profile consistent with a rotor-trough structure. A similar feature was observed in the first phase of the January 7, 2025 event, suggesting a hybrid structure with both rotor and double-trough dynamics. In both cases, observed surface wind gusts patterns coincided with the passage of a shortwave ejection aloft.

A shortwave ejection moving southwest across Southern California, December 2011

Single-Trough Events:
Single-trough events are the most common variant. They typically involve a single, moderately sized trough diving southeastward from the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. As the trough progresses, the western flank of its jet streak often becomes positioned over Los Angeles County, initiating mountain wave formation across the Transverse Ranges. These events are associated with continuous relative vorticity advection (as opposed to discrete pulses), resulting in prolonged but less intense wind episodes.

Duration often exceeds 12 hours, with damaging wind gusts ≥50 MPH sustained for at least 3 hours. Wind speed profiles tend to show a singular peak followed by gradual decline, although multiple surges may occur depending on smaller-scale embedded features. Historical examples include January 1, 1973; January 27, 1984; February 21, 1985; November 2, 1986; February 19, 1988; December 8, 1988; January 16, 1991; January 6, 1997; January 6, 2003; and January 22, 2022. The 2022 event, supported by observational data, exhibited multiple well-defined surges without extended plateaus, likely associated with localized vorticity maxima moving along the jet.

A single sharp western jet streak clips Los Angeles County, setting off a windstorm, January 2022

Double-Trough Events: Double-trough events are the rarest but most hazardous variant due to their prolonged duration and potential for multiple episodes of damaging winds. These setups begin similarly to single-trough events, with a trough diving through the Great Basin and initiating a mountain wave. However, a second shortwave trough, often originating in the Northern Rockies, rapidly follows the first and plunges toward Southern California along the same upper-level jet axis.

This two-stage process leads to distinct windstorm phases separated by a lull, often producing two overnight periods of damaging winds. Total event duration may exceed 24 hours, with damaging gusts ≥50 MPH sustained for 6 – 12 hours. Wind profiles often contain long plateaus and strong surge onsets. Confirmed double-trough cases include December 11, 1984, February 4, 2020, and January 7–8, 2025. Both the 2020 and 2025 events exhibited significantly longer windstorm durations than other variants. Notably, the first phase of the 2025 event likely included rotor dynamics, while the second phase maintained high vorticity and strong jet support for more than 9 hours. The inclusion of rotor motion, typically associated with stronger events, aided 2025 in becoming an unusually powerful and long-lasting variant.

A trough guiding multiple pieces of energy over Los Angeles County, January 2025
The January 7, 2025 Windstorm featuring a rotor trough ejecting shortwave energy over the San Gabriel Mountains, following it up 12 hours later by a powerful western jet streak

5. Discussion and Conclusion


The classification framework developed in this study demonstrates that cold-flavor Santa Ana windstorms can be meaningfully grouped into three synoptic variants—single-trough, double-trough, and rotor-trough—based on 500 mb vorticity structure and jet streak alignment. These variants differ not only in meteorological setup but also in their surface expression, duration, and potential to exacerbate wildfire spread. Analysis of the four modern events using mesonet data shows clear alignment between observed wind profiles and the upper-level dynamics captured by ERA5 reanalysis.

Among these, double-trough events emerge as the most dangerous. Both the February 2020 and January 2025 windstorms were double-trough events, and both exhibited total durations at least twice that of other variants. These storms sustained sub-peak damaging winds for extended periods, with maximum gusts occurring intermittently rather than during a single burst. This behavior suggests a sustained synoptic support for mountain wave activity, which is consistent with the prolonged vorticity advection and dual shortwave trough interactions observed in ERA5. Critically, the January 2025 event occurred before meaningful rainfall. The rare combination of this vigorous and long-lasting Santa Ana windstorm enabled the Eaton and Palisades wildfires to simultaneously evolve into one of the largest urban conflagrations in modern history.

In contrast, single-trough events, such as the January 2022 storm, were shorter in duration and featured wind profiles with sharp, well-defined peaks followed by rapid declines. These were associated with transient jet streak alignments, where the most favorable dynamics for mountain wave generation passed quickly across Southern California. Despite producing locally intense gusts, the brief duration limits their capacity to drive world-record challenging conflagration expansion on their own.

Rotor-trough events, exemplified by March 2024, showed a gradual rise and fall in intensity, forming an arc-shaped wind profile. These storms appear to be triggered by the passage of a horizontal shortwave ejection, creating a wave-like response in mountain wind speeds. Though shorter in duration, rotor events can produce extreme instantaneous gusts and may represent the upper bound for windstorm intensity in the region. Their timing, waveform signature, and vorticity structure are distinct enough to merit their own category.

This study also underscores a critical gap in how fire weather threats are communicated. Current operational practices often emphasize peak wind gusts, yet our results show that event duration and sustained sub-peak winds may be more closely tied to structural fire risk and wildfire propagation. A wildfire occurring during a 20-hour windstorm with 40–50 MPH gusts may be more damaging than wildfire occurring during a a 3-hour storm peaking at 65 MPH. Incorporating variant-based synoptic classifications into fire weather forecasting and public messaging could enable better decision-making, including earlier evacuations and resource deployment.

Finally, the successful retrospective application of this classification framework to 50 years of historical ERA5 data—supported by independent media verification—suggests that this system has both predictive and diagnostic utility. It offers a foundation for more nuanced forecasting and post-event analysis, particularly in data-sparse regions or historical cases where surface observations are unavailable.

6. Future Work


Future work should apply this classification to additional cold-flavor Santa Ana events and evaluate whether these synoptic signatures can be reliably forecast several days in advance using ensemble models or high-resolution WRF simulations. Future work could also search for additional variants that could be derived from a windstorm not flagged in the ERA5, or one of the given variants in this study that should be separated further.

Introducing Synoptic Classifications Within Cold-Flavor Santa Ana Windstorms Using ERA5 and Local Mesonet Data Read More »

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